The new tax policy impact analysis
Adjustment of the export tax rebate
One, the impact on exports
The export tax rebate rate to reduce direct result of increased export costs, estimated that the export tax rebate rate for every one percentage point lower, the cost of exports will increase one percentage point or more, many low-profit enterprises are facing the danger of loss. In recent years, China's export structure has undergone significant changes : equipment and machinery industry exports accounted rising (in 2000 from 33.1% in 2005 to 46.3%); Exports of raw materials and consumer goods accounted declining (from the former in 2000, dropped to 5% 2005 of 3.3%, from the latter in 2000 39.9% in 2005 to 28.6%). Therefore, China will continue to maintain large trade surplus.
2, the impact on investment
The fixed assets investment, have been growing, but the rate of increase has slowed significantly
Nearly three years in fixed assets investment growth
Increase in Year
In 2003 27.7%
In 2004 25.8%
In 2005 25.7%
Three, the impact on consumption
Residents started to complain about price increases, and more inclined to save less consumption. The central bank survey showed that the third quarter of the residents are willing savings account for the number increased 2.2 percentage point decline in the second quarter and 3.8% in stark contrast.
Although the CPI is still very moderate increase (in August to 1.3%), while ordinary people with a "high price" in the number of views more and more, increasing the number of investigations has reached the quarter.
4, the impact of currency
Lower export tax rebate rate, which will help to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation. China Construction Bank, senior vice president of research, the researcher Zhao Qin-ming, "the export tax rebate for exports, in fact played a role in pushing for the yuan." According to Zhao Qin-ming estimated that in 2005 China's export commodities each dollar overall rebate for 0.4429 yuan, if their cancel, then, is for the renminbi is undervalued, now a reasonable exchange rate for 7.7061 yuan / dollar with the current exchange rate of 7.9762 level gap is not significant. "If the light of the current major international financial institutions forecast of this year's appreciation of the yuan median 3.5% and the elimination of export tax rebates can be set off against all of the RMB revaluation pressure."
One, the impact on exports
The export tax rebate rate to reduce direct result of increased export costs, estimated that the export tax rebate rate for every one percentage point lower, the cost of exports will increase one percentage point or more, many low-profit enterprises are facing the danger of loss. In recent years, China's export structure has undergone significant changes : equipment and machinery industry exports accounted rising (in 2000 from 33.1% in 2005 to 46.3%); Exports of raw materials and consumer goods accounted declining (from the former in 2000, dropped to 5% 2005 of 3.3%, from the latter in 2000 39.9% in 2005 to 28.6%). Therefore, China will continue to maintain large trade surplus.
2, the impact on investment
The fixed assets investment, have been growing, but the rate of increase has slowed significantly
Nearly three years in fixed assets investment growth
Increase in Year
In 2003 27.7%
In 2004 25.8%
In 2005 25.7%
Three, the impact on consumption
Residents started to complain about price increases, and more inclined to save less consumption. The central bank survey showed that the third quarter of the residents are willing savings account for the number increased 2.2 percentage point decline in the second quarter and 3.8% in stark contrast.
Although the CPI is still very moderate increase (in August to 1.3%), while ordinary people with a "high price" in the number of views more and more, increasing the number of investigations has reached the quarter.
4, the impact of currency
Lower export tax rebate rate, which will help to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation. China Construction Bank, senior vice president of research, the researcher Zhao Qin-ming, "the export tax rebate for exports, in fact played a role in pushing for the yuan." According to Zhao Qin-ming estimated that in 2005 China's export commodities each dollar overall rebate for 0.4429 yuan, if their cancel, then, is for the renminbi is undervalued, now a reasonable exchange rate for 7.7061 yuan / dollar with the current exchange rate of 7.9762 level gap is not significant. "If the light of the current major international financial institutions forecast of this year's appreciation of the yuan median 3.5% and the elimination of export tax rebates can be set off against all of the RMB revaluation pressure."